Talk:Rare drop table
The "ultra" rare drop table[edit source]
I've discovered that four additional monsters (King Black Dragon, Black Dragon, Black Demon, Fire Giant) appear to have access to an additional rare drop table that is much more like the OSRS version of the rare drop table. On OSRS wiki we separate these out into "Gem drop table" and "Rare drop table", but since RSC already has the idea of the "Rare drop table" associated with the subroutine that only gives gems/key halves, I've decided to call this one the ultra-rare drop table. (This is actually more consistent with the internal names Jagex used).
On OSRS, those four monsters are the only pre-RS2 monsters that have access to the URDT. They are also the only four monsters on RSC that, according to the old wiki drop tables, give rare/very rare access to an interesting assortment of items. I speculate that these are all on the same subroutine, and this is made a lot easier by the fact that this URDT has almost exactly the same items in OSRS as it seems to have in RSC.
The evidence sources here are either:
- Wiki edits adding the same rare items to different monsters. Generally I'm looking for edits from multiple distinct users, especially on different monsters.
- Screenshots that Luis shared with me from fire giant bots that ran from 2017-2018. Probably 100k+ kills there, but it only logs items that the creator wanted it to log. This means that certain rare items may have been dropped, but ignored.
Near-certain items[edit source]
- 20 Silver certificate - Already present on KBD/Black Dragon/Fire Giant articles. Fairly common in the screenshots. Live on in OSRS as 100 Silver ore, 2/128 rarity. Sample mean of 2.2/128 on 1000 rolls.
- 20 Coal certificate - Already on KBD/Black Dragon articles. Equally common on the screenshots. Does not exist on OSRS. Sample mean of 1.8/128 on 1000 rolls.
- Dragonstone - Common in screenshots, and listed on Black Dragon/Black Demon/Fire Giant articles. Uncut dragonstone is also listed on KBD (and used to be on Black Dragon, until this edit, which makes me think Uncut/cut dragonstones are easily confused, and they are all actually regular Dragonstones. Discussions with other players suggest they have never seen an uncut drop. Dragonstone is 2/128 in OSRS, sample mean of 1.41/128 on 2200 rolls.
- Rune 2-handed Sword - Common in screenshots, also present on all 4 monsters' pages. 3/128 on OSRS, sample mean 4.06/128 on 2200 rolls.
- Rune battle Axe - Common in screenshots, also present on all 4 monsters' pages. 3/128 on OSRS, sample mean 2.65/128 on 2200 rolls.
- Rune Axe - Common in screenshots, on 3 of 4 monster pages. Not in OSRS. Sample mean of 2.83/128 on 2200 rolls.
- Dragon medium Helmet - Fairly rare in screenshots, on 3 of 4 monster pages. 1/128 in OSRS. Sample mean of 0.53/128 on 2200 rolls.
- Rune Kite Shield - Common-ish in screenshots, on all monster pages. 1/128 in OSRS. Sample mean of 0.88/128 on 2200 rolls.
- Rune Square Shield - Not listed in screenshots, but on all monster pages. 2/128 on OSRS.
- Runite bar - Common in screenshots, present on all pages. 5/128 on OSRS, sample mean 2.00/128 on 2200 rolls.
- 30 Death-Rune - Common in screenshots, 2/128 to drop in OSRS. 1.76/128 sample mean in 2200 drops.
- 45 Nature-Rune - Not in screenshots, but added by this IP with 10000 kills to Black Dragon. Fits with OSRS quantity * 1.5, and is 3/128 there.
- 30 Law-Rune - Not in screenshots, but added to Black Dragon by Mith. 2/128 in OSRS.
- 3000 Coins - Only on the KBD page and added by an IP, but it's believable that people wouldn't pick up what they assume are a very small number of coins from the other mobs (and there's no other visual indication that it's a good amount). This is a 21/128 drop on OSRS, but I have no way of estimating for the available drop logs.
- 300 Bronze Arrows - Added by Mith to Black Dragon. Not in OSRS, but there are some other arrows drops.
- Half of a key - A bit hard to tell because it's also from GDT, but my best guess is that fire giants access the GDT about 5/128 (based on 285 rubies in a ~122k sample, and assuming 1/16 on rubies from GDT). I also think key halves are each 1/128 from GDT. This would normally put us at about 169 halves in a 278k sample, but instead we got 759. That suggests that GDT has around a 34/128 chance of giving a key half (maybe 17/128 for each?)
Probable items[edit source]
- Rune Plate Mail Legs - Not in screenshots, but added by Luis to Black Dragon and by Zorak to KBD back in 2011. Not on OSRS, not on fire giant logs.
- Rune Chain Mail Body - Not in screenshots, but added by Luis to Black Dragon and by an IP in 2010 to Black Demon (although see below, the credibility of this editor is in question). It was also on Mexk's website. Not in OSRS, not on fire giant logs.
Possible-but-unlikely items[edit source]
- 150 Steel Arrows - Added by the famous Black Demon IP in 2011, but also had some incorrect drops. This exact amount of steel arrows is dropped in OSRS with 2/128 rarity. I seriously question this editor's legitimacy because these exact quantities were on RSW's black demon page at the time of the edit.
- ??? Rune Arrows - Added by the famous Black Demon IP as 12-150 quantity in 2011, but also had some incorrect drops. 42 are dropped in OSRS with 2/128 rarity. I seriously question this editor's legitimacy because these exact quantities were on RSW's black demon page at the time of the edit.
- Adamant javelin - Obviously doesn't exist in RSC, but it's the only post-2003 item on the main URDT. It's possible that it was replaced by something else.
In OSRS, the URDT also rolls on the gem drop table and mega-rare (spears and shield half) table with 20/128 and 15/128 rates respectively. We saw 3 shield halves in about 278,000 fire giant kills. Keep in mind we think the fire giant gem table rate is 5/128 (based on rubies), and then in OSRS it's 1/128 from there to promote to mega-rare, and then 4/128 to hit to If the rates are the same as OSRS, then 278k * 5/128 * 1/128 * 4/128 = 2.65 expected shield halves just from the gem part of the table. If it's also the same on the URDT side, then it's 278k * 1/128 * 15/128 * 4/128, which would be another 7.95 shield halves. We only saw three, total, in the entire set. That makes me think URDT does not have a sub-roll on mega-rare.
As for URDT to gem, it's really impossible to tell. My hunch is that if they aren't subroutining to mega-rare, they're probably not subroutining to gem either...but who knows?
Regarding red dragons[edit source]
There is a small chance that red dragons also can roll on URDT, but I think this is unlikely.
- There is also an Uncut dragonstone listed on Red Dragon from this edit by Stormy but I think this may be an error. Red Dragons do not roll URDT on OSRS, and the drop table on the wiki here doesn't currently mention any of the other URDT drops. Stormy's edit also included the Dragon medium helmet and Shield half.
- The dragon med helm/shield half were removed by an IP who claimed Jagex confirmed they don't drop them, but this was reverted. * Stormy removed the dragon med helm after changing their mind.
- Mith removed the shield half in a larger cleanup.
- RSC2001 later said he killed red dragons for weeks and never saw an uncut dragonstone, and also never added any of the other obvious URDT drops.
Overall, I think this is fairly compelling evidence that red dragons do not roll on URDT, and likely don't drop any type of dragonstone, nor the dragon med helm. They would still access the GDT and technically give access to the shield half.
Best guesses for tables[edit source]
|Uncut sapphire||1||Common (~1/4)|
|Uncut emerald||1||Common (~1/8)|
|Uncut ruby||1||Common (~1/16)|
|Uncut diamond||1||Uncommon (~1/64)|
|Half of a key (loop)||1||Rare (~1/128)|
|Half of a key (tooth)||1||Rare (~1/128)|
Plus a 1/128 chance to subroutine the Mega table. The rest (65/128) is nothing.
It is exceedingly likely that these are the only items here, and that it's accessible from the gem table. The rates are conjectural but are based on OSRS.
|Rune Spear||1||Common (~1/16)|
|Half Dragon Square Shield (left)||1||Uncommon (~1/32)|
|Silver certificate||20||Uncommon (~2/128)|
|Coal certificate||20||Uncommon (~2/128)|
|Rune 2-handed Sword||1||Uncommon (~4/128)|
|Rune battle Axe||1||Uncommon (~3/128)|
|Rune Axe||1||Uncommon (~3/128)|
|Dragon medium Helmet||1||Rare (~1/128)|
|Rune Kite Shield||1||Rare (~1/128)|
|Rune Square Shield||1||Uncommon (~2/128)|
|Runite bar||1||Uncommon (~2/128)|
|Bronze Arrows||300||Uncommon (~2/128)|
|Half of a key (loop)||1||Common (~17/128)|
|Half of a key (tooth)||1||Common (~17/128)|
Perhaps the one people care about most is the Dragon medium Helmet. The sample mean was closer to 1/256 (9 in ~2171 rolls), and while it's somewhat unlikely (p = 2.6%) to get that unlucky for a 1/128 drop, the fact that it's 1/128 in OSRS, and that every other drop table I've ever seen in RSC is out of 128, makes me think it's even less likely to be 1/256.
Comments on above[edit source]
Great writeup, I posted on the reddit thread about it, but I figure it's good to have it here too, I'm pretty sure that RS2 replaced the Adamantite Spear on the drop table with Adamant Javelin. Hubcapp (talk) 02:23, 6 May 2020 (UTC)